Ethiopia’s 2022 Pretoria peace deal unravels as fighting resumes in Tigray
The 2022 Pretoria peace deal aimed to cease hostilities and pave the way for political dialogue in Ethiopia's Tigray region. However, failure to reach a broader political settlement has led to renewed fighting, formation of armed alliances, and increased regional tensions by 2026.
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The Pretoria peace deal signed in 2022 between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) ended large-scale fighting and set a framework for disarmament and immediate measures in Tigray.
However, the deal was not a comprehensive political settlement. It was meant to lead to political dialogue addressing underlying disputes, including restoring Tigray’s self-rule and representation in Ethiopia’s federal institutions.
These broader political goals were not achieved. The TPLF was deregistered and Tigray excluded from the June 2026 elections. The withdrawal of Eritrean and other non-federal forces and accountability for alleged war crimes also did not materialize.
Consequently, fighting has resumed between government troops and Tigrayan forces, with air and drone strikes reported in the region. Seven armed groups, including former adversaries, have formed an alliance aiming to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
International responses, such as from US ambassador Ervin Massinga, have focused on condemning the TPLF’s offensive, calling it an “unwinnable fight” and threatening sanctions.
Experts argue that focusing solely on the offensive obscures the failure of the peace process to deliver a lasting political settlement. This failure has led to an armed alliance spanning multiple regions, renewed attacks risking civilian harm and displacement, and rising tensions with Eritrea that could escalate into a wider regional conflict.
Preventing a broader war in Ethiopia requires negotiating a comprehensive political settlement beyond the original Pretoria agreement.