New model estimates Sudan’s 2025 war death toll could reach 100,000
Sudan's 2025 civil war death toll remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from 19,000 to over 70,000 direct deaths. A new model developed by conflict researchers accounts for underreporting and suggests the toll could be as high as 100,000. Fighting intensified in Darfur and North Kordofan, with the Rapid Support Forces capturing El-Fasher in October 2025, an event marked by significant civilian casualties and alleged genocide. These figures only reflect direct violence deaths, with many more likely dying from starvation and disease due to siege tactics.
Brève Publié le (Africa/Lagos, UTC+1)
Sudan’s civil war in 2025 caused far more deaths than previously reported, according to a new model developed by conflict researcher Paola Vesco and her team. The model estimates that the death toll could be as high as 100,000, significantly exceeding earlier counts.
Previous estimates varied widely: the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reported around 19,000 direct deaths from political violence, while the Uppsala Conflict Data Program estimated at least 60,000 civilian deaths. Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab also estimated at least 60,000 deaths during and after the Rapid Support Forces’ capture of El-Fasher between October and December 2025.
The Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group fighting the Sudanese army since 2023, intensified their offensive in Darfur and North Kordofan in 2025. Their capture of El-Fasher, after an 18-month siege, marked a strategic shift and was one of the deadliest episodes of the war. A UN fact-finding mission in February 2026 concluded that killings by this group in El-Fasher bore hallmarks of genocide.
The new model accounts for underreporting common in conflict zones, especially where communications are cut and humanitarian access is blocked, as was the case in Sudan in 2025. It provides a more realistic range of possible death tolls, highlighting the difficulty of accurately counting casualties in active conflicts.
Importantly, these figures only include direct deaths from violence. Many more Sudanese are believed to have died from starvation and disease, exacerbated by siege tactics such as the earthen walls built around El-Fasher to starve the population.