Super El Niño to cause nearly 31,400 extra heat deaths in Nigeria by February 2027
A University of Chicago study projects that Nigeria will experience the highest number of additional heat-related deaths globally due to the 2026-27 super El Niño. The Sahel region, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad, faces severe risks from extreme heat, exacerbated by poverty and limited electricity access. Nigeria alone could see nearly 31,400 extra deaths by February 2027.
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A University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab study estimates that the 2026-27 super El Niño will cause approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide, with Nigeria projected to suffer the highest toll.
The Sahel region of Africa, spanning from Mauritania to Eritrea, is expected to be the hardest hit by extreme heat. Four countries—Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad—are forecasted to experience the greatest loss of life due to heat.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country with 237.5 million residents, could see nearly 31,400 additional deaths from heat between September 2026 and February 2027. Factors such as widespread poverty—over 60% living below the national poverty line in 2025—and frequent power cuts even in electrified homes exacerbate vulnerability.
Sudan is projected to have the second highest number of heat deaths at 17,500, followed by Niger (10,000) and Chad (8,000). These countries face challenges including poverty, low electricity access (21% in Niger, 13% in Chad), and reliance on farming, which is vulnerable to drought.
The researchers emphasize the urgent need for governments to implement protective measures to reduce heat-related mortality in these vulnerable African populations.