Super El Niño to Drive Up South African Maize Prices by Early 2027
The super El Niño event peaking in late 2026 is forecast to reduce summer rainfall in southern Africa, causing drought and poor maize harvests. South African maize prices, linked to global markets and local supply, are expected to rise due to increased import needs and higher costs. Price volatility tends to increase during El Niño periods, affecting food security in the region.
Brève Publié le (Africa/Lagos, UTC+1)
The super El Niño event, characterized by warmer Pacific Ocean temperatures, is forecast to peak towards the end of 2026 and last through at least February 2027, bringing below-average summer rainfall to southern Africa.
This weather pattern typically causes drought conditions that reduce maize harvests, a staple crop for many southern African countries including South Africa.
South African maize prices are influenced by global maize prices, especially those on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, as well as local supply and demand factors and the rand exchange rate.
Research analyzing maize futures prices from 1997 to 2024 shows that while US and South African maize prices generally move together, price volatility becomes more persistent during El Niño events.
During El Niño-induced droughts, South Africa’s maize production declines, causing buyers to compete for limited supply, which can push local prices higher even if US prices remain stable.
Increased reliance on maize imports during these times adds shipping and import costs, further raising prices for consumers.
Experts recommend strengthening early warning systems and encouraging farmers to adopt weather-linked insurance to mitigate the impact of droughts and maize shortages on food security.